From 1973 to 1976, total United States consumption of cigarettes increased 3.4 percent, and total sales of chewing tobacco rose 18.0 percent. During the same period, total United States population increased 5.0 percent.
If the statements above are true, which of the following conclusions can be properly drawn?
A. United States manufacturers of tobacco products had higher profits in 1976 than in 1973.
B. Per capita consumption of cigarettes in the United States was lower in 1976 than in 1973.
C. The proportion of nonsmokers in the United States population dropped slightly between 1973 and 1976.
D. United States manufacturers of tobacco products realize a lower profit on cigarettes than on chewing tobacco.
E. A large percentage of United States smokers switched from cigarettes to chewing tobacco between 1973 and 1976.
Solution
Passage Visualization
| Passage Statement | Visualization and Linkage |
|---|---|
| From 1973 to 1976, total United States consumption of cigarettes increased 3.4 percent | Establishes: Cigarette consumption baseline and growth rate Concrete Example:1973: 100 billion cigarettes consumed1976: 103.4 billion cigarettes consumed Net increase: 3.4 billion cigarettesPattern: Moderate growth in cigarette consumption |
| total sales of chewing tobacco rose 18.0 percent | Establishes: Chewing tobacco sales baseline and growth rate Concrete Example:1973: 10 million units sold1976: 11.8 million units sold Net increase: 1.8 million units Pattern: Rapid growth in chewing tobacco sales (5x faster than cigarettes) |
| During the same period, total United States population increased 5.0 percent | Establishes: Population baseline and growth rate as comparison point Concrete Example:1973: 200 million people1976: 210 million people Net increase: 10 million people Critical Comparison Point: Population growth exceeded cigarette consumption growth |
| Overall Implication | Key Pattern Revealed: Per capita analysis:Cigarette consumption per person DECREASED (3.4% growth < 5.0% population growth) Chewing tobacco consumption per person INCREASED (18.0% growth > 5.0% population growth) Divergent tobacco consumption patterns: Americans shifted preferences between tobacco products during this period |
Valid Inferences
Inference: Per capita cigarette consumption decreased from 1973 to 1976.
Supporting Logic: Since cigarette consumption increased only 3.4 percent while population increased 5.0 percent during the same period, the average cigarette consumption per person must have declined. When population grows faster than total consumption, mathematical necessity dictates that per-capita consumption falls.
Clarification Note: This inference addresses consumption patterns relative to population size, not absolute consumption levels. The passage does not support conclusions about why these consumption patterns changed or whether total tobacco use increased or decreased overall.
Answer Choices Explained
A. United States manufacturers of tobacco products had higher profits in 1976 than in 1973.
This cannot be properly drawn because the passage only provides consumption and sales data, not profit information. We don’t know manufacturing costs, pricing changes, or profit margins, so we cannot conclude anything about profitability from consumption data alone.
B. Per capita consumption of cigarettes in the United States was lower in 1976 than in 1973.
This can be properly drawn from the data. Since cigarette consumption increased only 3.4% while population increased 5.0%, the mathematical result is that average consumption per person decreased. When population grows faster than total consumption, per capita consumption must decline.
C. The proportion of nonsmokers in the United States population dropped slightly between 1973 and 1976.
This cannot be properly drawn because we only know total consumption increased, not how many individual people were consuming tobacco. The increase could come from existing smokers consuming more rather than new smokers joining, so we cannot determine changes in the proportion of smokers vs nonsmokers.
D. United States manufacturers of tobacco products realize a lower profit on cigarettes than on chewing tobacco.
This cannot be properly drawn because the passage provides no information about profit margins, manufacturing costs, or pricing for either product. Sales volume data alone cannot tell us about profitability per unit.
E. A large percentage of United States smokers switched from cigarettes to chewing tobacco between 1973 and 1976.
This cannot be properly drawn because both cigarette consumption and chewing tobacco sales increased during this period. If people were switching from cigarettes to chewing tobacco, we would expect cigarette consumption to decrease, but it actually increased by 3.4%.
