{"id":57639,"date":"2025-08-27T16:45:02","date_gmt":"2025-08-27T11:15:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/e-gmat.com\/blogs\/?p=57639"},"modified":"2025-09-05T00:18:42","modified_gmt":"2025-09-04T18:48:42","slug":"meteorite-explosions-in-the-earths-atmosphere-as-large-as-the-one-that","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-gmat.com\/blogs\/meteorite-explosions-in-the-earths-atmosphere-as-large-as-the-one-that\/","title":{"rendered":"Meteorite explosions in the Earth’s atmosphere as large as the one that destroyed…."},"content":{"rendered":"A <\/span> 3<\/span> min read <\/span><\/span>\n

Meteorite explosions in the Earth’s atmosphere as large as the one that destroyed forests in Siberia, with approximately the force of a twelve-megaton nuclear blast, occur about once a century. The response of highly automated systems controlled by complex computer programs to unexpected circumstances is unpredictable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Which of the following conclusions can most properly be drawn, if the statements above are true, about a highly automated nuclear-missile defense system controlled by a complex computer program?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  • A. Within a century after its construction, the system would react inappropriately and might accidentally start a nuclear war.<\/li>
  • B. The system would be destroyed if an explosion of a large meteorite occurred in the Earth’s atmosphere.<\/li>
  • C. It would be impossible for the system to distinguish the explosion of a large meteorite from the explosion of a nuclear weapon.<\/li>
  • D. Whether the system would respond inappropriately to the explosion of a large meteorite would depend on the location of the blast.<\/li>
  • E. It is not certain what the system’s response to the explosion of a large meteorite would be, if its designers did not plan for such a contingency.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    SOLUTION<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Passage Visualization<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
    Passage Statement<\/th>Visualization and Linkage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
    Meteorite explosions in the Earth’s atmosphere as large as the one that destroyed forests in Siberia, with approximately the force of a twelve-megaton nuclear blast, occur about once a century.<\/strong><\/em><\/td>Establishes:<\/strong> Natural occurrence frequency and magnitude

    Concrete example: Between 1900-2000: Tunguska event (1908)Expected pattern: 2000-2100 should see ~1 similar eventMagnitude: 12-megaton explosive forceKey Pattern: Predictable frequency (once per 100 years) of massive natural events<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
    The response of highly automated systems controlled by complex computer programs to unexpected circumstances is unpredictable.<\/strong><\/em><\/td>Establishes:<\/strong> Limitation of automated systems

    System behavior under normal conditions: PredictableSystem behavior under unexpected conditions: UnpredictableExample: Automated trading systems during market crashes, self-driving cars in novel scenariosCritical Weakness: Complex programs cannot reliably handle unforeseen situations<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
    Overall Implication<\/strong><\/td>Pattern Recognition:<\/strong> Predictable natural disasters + Unpredictable automated responses = Systematic vulnerability

    A highly automated nuclear defense system would face a known threat<\/strong> (meteorite explosions resembling nuclear attacks occur ~every 100 years) but have unpredictable responses<\/strong> to such unexpected circumstances.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Valid Inferences<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Inference:<\/strong> A highly automated nuclear-missile defense system would unpredictably respond to meteorite explosions that occur approximately once per century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Supporting Logic:<\/strong> Since meteorite explosions with nuclear-blast-like force occur about once a century, and since highly automated systems controlled by complex computer programs respond unpredictably to unexpected circumstances, a nuclear defense system would encounter these meteorite events and respond to them in unpredictable ways. The system would likely interpret the 12-megaton explosive signature as a potential nuclear attack, triggering an unpredictable automated response.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Clarification Note:<\/strong> The passage supports that the system’s response would be unpredictable, but does not specify whether this unpredictability would result in false alarms, system failures, or inappropriate defensive actions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Answer Choices Explained<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    A. Within a century after its construction, the system would react inappropriately and might accidentally start a nuclear war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This goes way beyond what we can infer from the passage. While we know the system’s response to unexpected circumstances is unpredictable, we cannot conclude that it ‘would react inappropriately’ or ‘might accidentally start a nuclear war.’ Unpredictable doesn’t necessarily mean inappropriate – the system might handle the situation fine, we just can’t be certain either way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    B. The system would be destroyed if an explosion of a large meteorite occurred in the Earth’s atmosphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The passage tells us nothing about whether a meteorite explosion would physically destroy the defense system. We’re told about the system’s behavioral response to unexpected circumstances, not about its physical vulnerability to explosions. This makes an unsupported leap about physical destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    C. It would be impossible for the system to distinguish the explosion of a large meteorite from the explosion of a nuclear weapon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This is too absolute. The passage doesn’t give us enough information to conclude that distinguishing between meteorite and nuclear explosions would be ‘impossible.’ While both might have similar explosive signatures, we don’t know what detection capabilities the system might have or whether other factors could help differentiate them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    D. Whether the system would respond inappropriately to the explosion of a large meteorite would depend on the location of the blast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The passage provides no information suggesting that the location of the blast would affect the system’s response. We’re told that automated systems respond unpredictably to unexpected circumstances generally, but there’s nothing about location-dependent responses. This introduces a factor not supported by the passage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    E. It is not certain what the system’s response to the explosion of a large meteorite would be, if its designers did not plan for such a contingency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This correctly captures what we can infer. Since meteorite explosions occur about once a century and create nuclear-blast-like signatures, they would likely be ‘unexpected circumstances’ if designers didn’t plan for them. Given that automated systems respond unpredictably to unexpected circumstances, we can properly conclude that ‘it is not certain’ what the response would be. This stays within the bounds of the passage while making a logical inference.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Meteorite explosions in the Earth’s atmosphere as large as the one that destroyed forests in Siberia, with approximately the force of a twelve-megaton nuclear blast, occur about once a century. The response of highly automated systems controlled by complex computer programs to unexpected circumstances is unpredictable. 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